Sunday 7 November 2010

Getting optimism from looking at the past

Podcast from Econ Talk (Russ Roberts) on new book from Matt Ridley, The Rational Optimist

1. Musings on the specialization and trade and why humans do it but animals dont

2. First gain from trade:

man goes out hunting warthogs, wife goes out collecting roots . Neither party can guarantee harvest every day and so benefit from trading.

2. Spread the good news: Hundreds of millions coming out of poverty in the last 25 years, lifespan up 30%, per capita income trebled (when population has doubled). Could get alot richer.

We are unappreciative about amazing things that have happened in the last ten years.

The man who despairs when other hope is seen as a sage - yes need to step back and see hope as the podcast says but doesnt really get onto challenge of climate change and sustainability.

Ridley argument against this is :

Humans develop more efficient use of resources - but doesnt mention high incomes making higher overall impact).

Much more productive use of land which is enough to feed the world (including with lots of meat) whilst not putting Amazon at peril - weak argument missing any strong numbers. Can we really go from 6 to 9 billion relying on productivity gains?

Yes we get better but no numbers to say if we can do it fast enough.

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